Requirements under § 156b StVG, prognosis is the crux
The four cumulative requirements, remaining sentence, housing, employment, prognosis, are structurally laid out in the table above. What the table cannot show: the prognosis under § 156b (1) no. 4 StVG is the most frequently underestimated criterion. Formally, it ranges from "likely unproblematic" to "highly likely unreliable"; substantively, it draws on the personality structure, the history of offending, the family and social embedding, the degree of engagement with the offence and the willingness to cooperate.
Burglars, drug-dependent offenders with multiple convictions and violent offenders with conflict potential in the home environment carry a higher burden of justification here, not impossible, but tied to structured groundwork: therapy, debt restructuring, employment commitment, distance from the offence environment. Anyone who delivers substance at this point markedly raises the prospects of success. Anyone who relies on generalities hands the prison the ground for refusal. In borderline cases, an upfront psychological statement or an assessment from a probation organisation is worthwhile because it provides the prison with an external, professionally supported perspective, not just the convict's self-assessment.
If the application is filed from ongoing imprisonment, the prison additionally assesses behaviour in custody. Disciplinary measures, refusal to work, escape attempts or positive drug tests are de facto knock-out criteria. Conversely, a clean record in custody is the strongest argument for the application, the prison statement becomes the central lever around which the application is built.